This combined photo, released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, Monday, shows the North Korean military firing missiles into the East Sea and the West Sea from Nov. 2 to Nov. 5 corresponding to a South Korea-U.S. joint air exercise. Yonhap

Nuclear test could be postponed: ex- and current government officials

By Kang Seung-woo

Undeterred by the failed test of what is suspected to have been a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) last week, North Korea is expected to push ahead with another launch of its largest and most powerful missile ahead of a holiday marking its successful nuclear-capable missile test, according to diplomatic observers, Monday.

North Korea designated Nov. 29 as "Rocket Industry Day" commemorating the anniversary of test-firing a Hwasong-15 nuclear-capable ICBM on Nov. 29, 2017. The missile is believed to be theoretically capable of hitting targets anywhere in the U.S. mainland. Afterwards, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared the completion of "the state nuclear force."

On Thursday, the totalitarian state test-fired a Hwasong-17, but it failed while in flight, according to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).

"Ahead of conducting a nuclear test, North Korea needs to vindicate that it has mastered nuclear-strike capability by being able to deliver a nuclear warhead anywhere in the continental United States, so it is highly expected to launch an ICBM like it did in 2017," said Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum.

"The ICBM would definitely be a Hwasong-17," Shin added.

Analysts believe the Hwasong-17 may be capable of carrying multiple warheads and traveling up to 15,000 kilometers, putting any place in the U.S. mainland within range. The missile was unveiled in October 2020.

Fueling such speculation is the fact that North Korea has resorted to large-scale military shows of force in years ending with a five or zero. This year marks the fifth anniversary of the successful launch of the Hwasong-15.

This year alone, North Korea has test-fired the so-called "monster missile" on five occasions between February and November. But all of the test launches ended in failure, raising speculation that the country is still short of completing the development of the missile.

However, Shin said North Korea will not be mindful of its past failures.

"Despite a series of failures, North Korea has test-fired the missile," Shin said. "It is still under development and the North may have acquired some data from the failed launches. In that sense, it is ready to test-fire another Hwasong-17," he said.

Earlier in the day, the General Staff of the North's Korean People's Army (KPA) said it fired two cruise missiles from North Hamgyong Province in protest against Vigilant Storm, a combined air exercise between South Korea and the U.S. that came to an end, Saturday. The missiles landed in international waters about 80 kilometers off South Korea's southeastern coastal city of Ulsan as part of North Korea's four-day military operations between Nov. 2 and Nov. 5.

A photo released by the official North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows a new Hwasong-17 missile displayed in a military parade held to celebrate the 90th founding anniversary of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army in Pyongyang, North Korea, April 25. Yonhap

However, the JCS said the North Korean announcement was different from the truth, adding that there was nothing detected by South Korean and U.S. surveillance and reconnaissance assets.

North Korea is believed to have fully prepared for another nuclear test since May, according to South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities. Seoul's National Intelligence Service (NIS) predicted that Pyongyang may conduct its next nuclear test before the U.S. midterm elections, scheduled for Tuesday (local time).

But incumbent and former government officials think that the test may be postponed further.

"If North Korea remains quiet tonight, I expect that North Korea will not carry out a nuclear test for the time being," Park Jie-won, a former NIS chief wrote on Facebook, Sunday.

Vice Defense Minister Shin Beom-chul also said during a radio interview, Monday, "Unless North Korea's nuclear test takes place before the U.S. midterm elections, it would be difficult to fix another date in the short run."

Meanwhile, South Korea kicked off its annual computer-simulated Taegeuk training, Monday, to enhance operational capabilities against North Korean threats.