In the tradition of the Clintonometer and the Trump Apocalypse Watch, the Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.

This Timesarticle does a nice job discussing the ways Trump’s poll numbers and electoral position might be affected by his decision to pull out of the Paris climate accords. In short, most voters believe climate change is real and that the Paris Agreement was a good idea; said climate-conscious voters, though, don’t care much about the issue when compared with things like health care and the economy, and Trump is betting that the boost his rural, elite-resenting base will give him for stickin’ it to Europe and China will outweigh any damage caused.

And yet: Alienating our allies/trade partners in the service of a shrinking industry that is literally dependent on ancient fossils is probably not actually going to do much good for the vaunted white working class Trump bloc going forward. Combine this with the depredations the administration would like to inflict on lower-income families via its health care and tax “reform” plans, and it’s just hard to see a nation of working-class Americans excited to back Trump Republicanism in 2018 and the lead-up to 2020. And that means more Democrats in Congress, and more Republicans who are willing to throw Trump overboard by actually investigating his many crimes. Also, it’s Friday and I’m feeling frisky. Let’s raise this meter!